Live Daily Prediction Using Artificial Intelligence

UPDATES:

Update November 17, 2019. All the articles in journals documenting the Argentina election are here.

Update October 27, 2019. We have obtained our final estimates for the election. The final Model 3 consists on first obtaining the cumulative classification of the tweets and users (Model 1), then predicting the undecided voters by homophily in the network of contacts (Model 2), and finally applying a re-weighting of the results by age and gender (Model 3).

The final results of the Model 3 are:

FF = 48.9%, MP = 39.6%, Third Party = 11.4%, Difference = 9.3%

The official results of the election with 97.13% of the votes computed are:

FF = 48.10%, MP = 40.37%, Third Party = 11.53%, Difference = 7.73%,

Update September 5, 2019. Hedge fund Autonomy Capital lost about $1 billion last month largely on investments tied to Argentina, making it one of the most prominent investors caught on the wrong side of market turmoil in that country. [WSJ]

Update August 11, 2019. The PASO elections have shown a 15.57% difference for FF over the MP. No pollster anticipated such a large diffence. [Clarin] Our cumulative results in chart 39 show very good agreement with PASO results. Methods are explained in chart 40.

Update August 1, 2019. We updated our model with new set of curated hashtags.

Update July 31, 2019. We have obtained the gender, age and location of a number of users and use this information to renormalize the data according to the demographic of the census population. See Charts 37 and 38.

Update July 25, 2019. We have estimated the intention of vote of the undecided population by homophily.

Update July 8, 2019. Macri-Pichetto has improved its vote intention but Fernandez-Fernandez is still above Macri in the balotage and in first round taking into account undecided. We observe an extreme polarization. As of today, no third candidate is viable, including Lavagna and Espert. We are closely following the undecided to predict their vote intention using graph theory and other analytical methods.

Update June 25, 2019. We have trained a new model incorporating the new hashtags after the closing of the PASO lists of candidates.

Update June 7, 2019. A new survey from Synopsis reported in Clarin gives an improvement of Macri against Cristina of 50.7% over 49.3%. Clarin reports that the majority of the consulting firms now give Macri a “repunte” (improvement) over the last couple of weeks. Kcore anticipated this result already on May 13, when Cristina reached its peak of 57% and then went down steadly after the announcement of the formula Fernandez-Fernandez, until reaching a technical tie with Macri on May 31. As of today, June 7, Kcore is predicting a new change of trend with an improvement of Cristina over Macri: 53% to 47%. This result has not been predicted yet by any traditional polling firm.

Update May 28, 2019. Our predictions show Cristina going down in preference after her announcement of the formula Fernandez-Fernandez. This prediction was confirmed today by Opinaia in a note in Clarin. See Mauricio Macri pasa al frente en el balotaje: 51 a 49

Update May 7, 2019. New poll from Insomnia reported by Clarin reveals that, in an eventual ballot, the advantage on the intention of vote of Cristina over Macri has decreased in relation to the first half of April.

Update May 3, 2019. Trusted sources according to Clarin: Isonomia, Gustavo Cordoba, Ricardo Rouvier, Opinaia, Imagen y Gestión Política, Demos Consulting, Gustavo Marangoni, Giacobbe, M&F. Trusted sources from the 2015 election: Management & Fit, Poliarquia, OPSM, Giacobbe, IPA.

Update April 29, 2019. A recent poll featured in Clarin from Opinaia ("tuvo buenos pronósticos en 2015 y 2017") brings some "alivio" calm to the Macri camp showing a 51% for Cristina and 49% for Macri in ballotage. AI predicted similar results one week before and confirmed the result this week.

Update April 24, 2019. Kcore-Analytics Artificial Intelligence predicts in advance of the traditional polls the results of the 2019 Argentine Presidential election. We use artificial intelligence to predict the opinion of 3.8 million users from Twitter. The Twitter data is selected both by content and by frequency eliminating bots so it is quite robust to predict the results. It is measured in real time and we can identify influencers, hashtags and the results at the same time.

Update April 18, 2019. We are currently following the Argentinian Election Campaign. Our results show an advantage of Cristina Kirchner over Mauricio Macri of 10 points since February 2019. This prediction was confirmed by Isonomia on April 18, 2019, a pollster consulting firm working for the Macri administration, creating a large concern among politicians in Cambiemos Party, increasing the 'riesgo país' index to 854 points and bringing down stocks of Argentinian firms in Wall Street by 8%. See [clarin.com] [infobae.com]. Our AI anticipated this result by one month.

(15) Top 50 cumulative #hashtags (2019-08-11 updated)

(16) #hashtags from camps (2019-08-11 updated)

(17) Hashtag network updated on 2019-08-08 (p-value<10^-7)

(18) Hashtag Cloud of FF camp

(19) Hashtag Cloud of MP camp

(50) Population distribution in Argentina according to areas

(51) Population distribution in US according to states (2.59 million users)

(52) Daily new users

New users (w=14 days)

(53) Swing and loyal voters in FF and MP camp

(54) Distribution of FF (MP) tweets of FF (MP) supporters

(54) CCDF of FF (MP) tweets of FF (MP) supporters